I am supposed to be leaving to go to Bryan at noon, and I have plenty of work to do, so what have I been doing this morning? Looking at Vegas hotel prices. I told Rob he owes me an anniversary trip, and Ohio doesn't count. (But I have no idea when we're going. What with the moving sometime this year and everything, it could be next winter before we get around to it.)

I also haven't packed. I was really tired last night and I just went to bed early - unusual for me. So I have to go home and pack when I get off work. This is no big deal as far as clothing and such for two nights, but we are also supposed to be quilting this weekend so I have to gather all that stuff up again.

The whole weekend is sort of an experiment, anyway - remember how I used to complain about my aunt all the time? (Some of you probably do, at least!) Well, so, a whole weekend alone with her, more or less - we have been getting along better lately but this could be straining the point. But at least we have something to do, and her kids will be around some, presumably, so it will probably be ok. I've just gotten a little nervous about it as the time has gotten closer.

From the WSJ:

BY THE NUMBERS

By ALLEN ST. JOHN

Roger and Them
May 11, 2007; Page W9C

No team ever won a pennant race in April, but some have come perilously close to losing it -- perhaps including this season's New York Yankees.

The Yankees may be the highest scoring team in baseball, but a sky-high 4.52 ERA has left them with a 16-16 record through Wednesday night's game. Their solution: giving Roger Clemens approximately $18.5 million to pitch from early to mid-June through the end of the season. The cost to the Yankees once the luxury tax is figured in will be about $26 million.

What are the Yankees getting for their money? A certain Hall of Famer. What do they need for him to do? A lot, it turns out.

To the Yankee organization, failing to win the World Series is bad enough -- but the idea of missing the playoffs (they've played in every postseason since 1995) isn't allowed into the realm of possibility. But the team's slow start this season could put that sure thing into jeopardy.

Since 2001, it's taken an average of 98.7 wins to take the AL East and 97.3 wins for the AL Wild Card berth. This year, it may take more. The Boston Red Sox are on a 111.5-win pace, and the Detroit Tigers, currently second in the AL Central, project out to 101.3 wins.

To get 97 wins, the Yankees need to go 81-49 for the rest of the season. That's a .623 winning percentage, a season-long pace the team has topped only twice -- 1998 and 2002 -- since their postseason streak began.

Rating the Rotation

How much help will the other Yankee hurlers be in getting there? To find out, we'll use Established Win Level, which estimates a player's win-loss record based on his performance the previous three years, with recent seasons weighted more heavily. Established Win Level says the combined records of Chien-Ming Wang, Mike Mussina and Andy Pettitte should come out to 33-19 the rest of the way (see chart). The fourth spot in the rotation is where the troubles start. Carl Pavano is likely out for the season due to elbow problems, and Jeff Karstens has a broken leg. Darrell Rasner or Matt DeSalvo will likely fill in until either Kei Igawa manages to make it back from the minors or rookie sensation Phil Hughes recovers from a hamstring injury. Based on collective performance over the past three seasons, the combination of the Yankee bullpen and spot starters should yield about a 34-26 mark, resulting in a composite record of 67-45. Mr. Clemens's task then becomes clear. For 97 wins, the Yankees need Mr. Clemens to go 10 games over .500, with a record of around 14-4.

Can he do it? The Yankees will likely get Mr. Clemens at his best. When working a full season, the Rocket has been a first-half pitcher. From 2002 to 2005, his April ERA was 2.65 -- but by August it was 4.10. Last year, when he started in late June, Mr. Clemens posted a 2.54 ERA and a 4-0 record in August. The Yankees should give Mr. Clemens better run support (currently 5.93 runs per game) than the 3.80 he got in Houston, so his 2.30 ERA for last season is a better indicator of his potential performance than his 7-6 record.

One hidden benefit to Mr. Clemens's arrival is that the Yankees will be under less pressure to rush Mr. Hughes back into the rotation. If the 20-year-old is able to heal -- and then become the No. 1 starter the Yankees expect him to be -- this deal should pay dividends long after Mr. Clemens has hung up his cleats for good.

A Trajectory for the Rocket

After a cold April, the Yankees face a hard climb to the 97 wins or more that will likely be needed to make the playoffs. To compile the 81-49 record for the rest of the season that would get them there, they'll need a 67-45 combined record from their current starting pitchers and bullpen. That means Roger Clemens needs to win 14 of 18 decisions.