Sep. 29th, 2006

mellicious: Retro Houston Astros logo (Astros - retro)
OK, so, the Cardinals' magic number* is 4. They have 4 games left (one of which they won't play unless necessary); we have 3. So they have seven chances to get the 4, in a sense. I was trying to figure all this out:

1. If we win all our games, then the Cardinals have to win all theirs, too - at least, to avoid a tie. Any day where we win & they lose puts us ahead. I would guess that if after the games are played on Sunday, they still have the half-game lead, then they would have to play the Monday game since we would have played one more game than they have. If they win that game, they would win the division; if they lose, it would be a tie and there would be a one-game playoff.

2. If I'm figuring this right, any scenario in which the two teams' records are the same over the weekend means the Cards have to play on Monday, because they would still only have the half-game lead. Same Monday scenario as in #1.

3. If we go 2-1 this weekend and they go 1-2, then WE would have the half-game lead on Sunday night. They would still have to play on Monday, but now they would be playing for a tie; if they lost, we would win the division.

4. If we go 1-2 and they go 2-1, they win. (Two losses for us, two wins for them. Four.)

5. If we lose all our games, the Cardinals would only have to win one game to clinch. (Because we would have just handed them 3 of the 4 in the magic number.) That would include the game on Monday if needed.

Whew. We need to win a lot of games, in any case. Or we need the Cards to lose a lot. Or both, which is how we got here in the first place. Anyway, it could be worse - we could be out of the running.


And yeah, I know, I'm putting way too much thought into this. What can I say, it's that kind of morning.

*If you don't understand magic numbers, here's Wikipedia's attempt at an explanation, which I hope is more enlightening to you than it was to me.

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